Inside The Minds Of India’s Sharpest Investors

I attended the recent investor conference hosted by Groww – which had multiple interesting conversations happening simultaneously in different halls – and I must tell you it was extremely hard to choose which ones to attend and which to let go.

While I was expecting the usual market conversations i.e., valuations, sectors, interest rates – what really stood out was something deeper. Almost every speaker, in different ways, kept returning to the same idea: We may be entering a very different investing era.

Not just another market cycle. A different world order.

From oil shocks and AI to global diversification and the art of not losing money, here are the ideas that stayed with me –

1. The Macro Backdrop: From Oil Shocks to Currency Stability

Mr. Neelkanth Mishra and Dr. Sajjid Chinoy, possibly the two most decorated economists in the country, spoke about the key macro factors to watch out for.

They said that the global energy landscape remains the primary headwind. With nearly 13-15 million barrels/day offline, we are witnessing the largest oil shock in recent history. While physical shortages have not yet materialized, the ongoing inventory drawdowns in hubs like Singapore suggest a precarious balance.

• Price Stickiness: Both speakers said that they anticipate crude to remain anchored around $100/barrel, even if current geopolitical conflicts subside (this view resonated with most speakers across panels except with the optimistic Mr. Singhania who instilled some hope of oil prices coming down to $60-70/barrel).

  
  

• India’s Fiscal Guardrails: Despite these pressures, India maintains sufficient fiscal space for policy intervention. The primary concern for the RBI has shifted from inflation-which remains relatively controlled-to currency stability. Notably, the RBI has become aggressive in its intervention, signalling a commitment to shielding the rupee from extreme volatility.

Key takeaway: For years, markets operated assuming globalization would always make supply chains efficient. That assumption suddenly feels fragile. We are moving from globalization to strategic nationalism.

With this backdrop, I scuttled to the next obvious session –

2. The "Anti-Fragile" Portfolio: What To Own When The World Is Breaking

Mr. Sunil Singhania and Mr. Ramesh Damani argue that the current market exodus by foreign investors is not a sign of a broken system, but rather a "lumpy" transition where DIIs are providing the necessary floor. They pointed out that the world order changes every few decades implying that investors must view stocks with a new set of eyes every time this happens.

Key themes from a portfolio standpoint:

• Asymmetric Warfare: The shift from globalization to "every country for itself" is reshaping sector picks. Defence is no longer optional; investors are moving toward asymmetric profit opportunities in defence manufacturing.

  
  

• Resilience to AI: Focus on investing in sectors that may not be meaningfully impacted by AI, such as infrastructure and tourism.

  
  

• Commodities: Gold and Silver, unlike equities, are non-productive assets. The speakers suggested not more than ~10% allocation to gold and silver and instead focus on equities.

Both Mr. Singhania and Mr. Damani remained optimistic about equities for the next 20 years (despite the ~80x growth in Sensex since 1990).

Key takeaway: Invest long-term, in great businesses, and let your money compound over time. Have a disciplined approach to investing and stay away from recency bias.

The “recency bias” theme drew my attention to another panel that was scheduled to discuss the “home bias” theme, so off I went!

3. Beyond "Home Bias": Should Your Portfolio Have A Passport?

Ms. Radhika Gupta and Mr. B. Gopkumar were the energetic duo discussing global market opportunities. As always, Ms. Radhika Gupta’s analogies stood out.

A central theme was the "Thali" approach to asset allocation: a model of resilience over raw returns.

Like any Indian Thali is a balanced mix of carbohydrates, proteins, and fibre; a balanced portfolio would have a good mix of assets that offer resilience. A good amount of seasoning (experience) always helps.

India vs. Global Markets:

• The 4% Reality: India accounts for roughly 3–4% of global market cap, meaning 96% of growth opportunities lie elsewhere.

  
  

• GIFT City: Gift City is emerging as a critical bridge for institutional and HNI capital, with access to global markets, through both inbound and outbound funds.

  
  

  As Ms. Radhika put it, investing in Indian companies that largely have operations in the US is in no way the same as investing in a US-based company – just like paneer chili is not the same as having Chinese food.

  
  

• Market Rotations: With the US tech-heavy and India at higher valuations, markets like Korea (semiconductors), Japan (corporate reform), and Germany (manufacturing/AI) are being eyed for better risk-reward balances.

Key takeaway: Global diversification is a great asset allocation strategy, and Indian investors now have access to outbound GIFT City funds to play that strategy.

(However, on a different panel, Mr. S. Naren suggested caution. He said that today when the INR has depreciated so much, it may not be the right time to diversify globally. The day India becomes in favour is when one must move money from India to global markets.)

When it comes to asset allocation – there isn’t a bigger pioneer than Mr. Sankaran Naren – so I had to attend that panel!

(Although truth be told, no matter the topic, I’ll never give up a chance to listen to Mr. S. Naren!)

4. The Art of "Not Losing Money"

Mr. S. Naren and Mr. Rajeev Thakkar took us through possibly THE most important topic of the day, emphasizing that protecting capital is as vital as capturing growth.

On protecting capital:

• Mr. Thakkar pointed out that historically the greatest damage has come from overestimating growth durability rather than underestimating valuation risk.

  
  

• Naren cautioned that one largely loses money in trading and derivatives, and that true capital protection lies in investing.

Naren also reiterated his stance on asset allocation being a much better way of investing than believing in pure equities.

But what stood out was one key observation that Naren shared – investors are good at buying not good at selling. (I’m a victim of that myself ☹)

So how do we decide when to sell?

Today we’ll learn from Naren what he learned from someone in his early investing days.

Do not look at it as a selling decision. Look at it as a switch. Evaluate if Share A is better than Share B, or Gold, or a House, at that point of time. Once you’ve made the switch, even if the value of Share A goes up, don’t agonize over it – rather focus on the potential of the asset you replaced it with.

Key takeaway: Switch, don’t sell. Asset allocation is key.

In Conclusion

What stayed with me after the conference was not a single stock tip or sector call; it was the realization that investing is becoming less about chasing the fastest growth and more about building resilience. The world appears to be shifting from an era of abundance and globalization to one defined by fragmentation, strategic nationalism, and rapid technological disruption. In such an environment, the winners may not necessarily be the most aggressive investors, but the ones who can stay adaptable, diversified, and emotionally disciplined. Whether it was the discussion around oil shocks, AI-resistant sectors, global diversification, or asset allocation, every conversation ultimately pointed toward the same idea: survive uncertainty first, and compounding will take care of the rest. Perhaps the future belongs not to the most optimistic investors, but to the most anti-fragile ones.